October 2024 Market Commentary
Author: Jeffrey Mansell
Report Coverage: Previous month
Published: Nov 12, 2024
Portfolio Summary
The portfolio returned -1.45% in October 2024. Equities constitute 65.76% of assets, with a significant cash position of 25.32%. The technology sector represents 30.65% of the portfolio, while North American investments account for 94.18%. Top holdings include Mastercard (8.45%), Visa (7.68%), and NVIDIA (6.96%). NVIDIA contributed 0.58% to performance, while Capri Holdings detracted -1.26%. Other major sectors include Financials (9.38%), Energy (7.42%), and Consumer Cyclicals (7.12%).
Portfolio News and Trends
• Broad market performance: The S&P 500 TR Index declined by 0.91%, while the Vanguard Total World Stock Index ETF fell by 2.18%, indicating a general market downturn. International markets, represented by the iShares MSCI EAFE Index, experienced a more significant drop of 5.27%.
• ETF performances by Style and Sector: Large-cap growth stocks, represented by the Russell 1000 Growth Index, outperformed with a minimal decline of 0.35%. The Financial Select Sector SPDR was the best-performing sector ETF, gaining 2.56%, while the Health Care Select Sector SPDR was the worst-performing, dropping 4.64%.
• Best and worst-performing sectors: The Financial sector showed strength with a 2.56% gain, followed by the Energy sector with a 0.90% increase. The Health Care sector was the worst performer, declining by 4.64%, followed by Consumer Staples, which fell by 3.47%.
• Performance of standout and underperforming ETFs in the Bond Performance category: The SPDR Barclays Capital High Yield Bond ETF (JNK) was the best performer among bond ETFs, with a relatively small decline of 0.99%. The iShares International Treasury Bond (IGOV) underperformed the most, dropping by 4.02%.
• Summary of news related to the top 5 contributors and top 2 detractors: NVIDIA (NVDA) continues to benefit from strong AI chip demand, with CEO Jensen Huang reporting "insane" demand for their new Blackwell chips (1). Visa (V) shows resilience despite a slight decrease in share price over the past month (4). Capri Holdings (CPRI) experienced a significant drop of 47.5% after a judge blocked its pending merger with Tapestry Inc. (7). Huntington Ingalls Industries (HII) reported disappointing Q3 earnings, missing both EPS and sales estimates (8).
• Context on recent developments and their impact on the portfolio: The ongoing AI revolution continues to drive growth in the technology sector, particularly benefiting companies like NVIDIA (1). However, concerns about rising interest rates and inflation are impacting consumer behavior and certain market segments (7). The cannabis industry is facing challenges related to debt maturities and regulatory changes, which could affect related investments (6).
• Insights into broader market trends affecting different asset classes and market segments: The technology sector, especially AI-related companies, continues to show strength despite market volatility (1). The financial sector is outperforming, possibly due to higher interest rates (7). International and emerging markets are underperforming compared to domestic markets, as evidenced by the significant drop in the iShares MSCI EAFE Index. The bond market is experiencing challenges across various categories, with international bonds particularly affected.
Macro Update
The Federal Reserve has lowered the target range for the federal funds rate to 4.75-5%, citing progress on inflation and balanced risks. Economic activity continues to expand, though job gains have slowed and unemployment has risen slightly. Inflation is moving towards the 2% objective but remains somewhat elevated.
The Beige Book reports little change in overall economic activity across most Federal Reserve Districts. Manufacturing activity declined in most areas, while consumer spending reports were mixed. The housing market generally held up, with expanding inventory and steady or slightly rising home values. Employment increased slightly, with easing demand for workers and improved availability. Wage growth continued at a modest to moderate pace, with some slowdown noted.
Inflation continued to moderate, with selling prices increasing slightly to modestly in most Districts. These developments suggest a delicate balance between managing inflation and supporting economic growth. The cooling labor market and moderating inflation provide some relief, but declining manufacturing activity and margin compression pose risks. Consumer behavior shifts towards less expensive alternatives and housing market resilience highlight the complex dynamics at play. These factors collectively point to a cautious economic outlook with potential for both upside and downside risks to portfolio performance.
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Economic and Market Outlook
• Global Economic Outlook: Mixed Signals and Cautious Optimism.
The IMF revised its 2024 U.S. growth outlook upward to 2.8%, citing resilient consumer spending and robust business investment (1). Global psychedelic drugs market expected to grow from $4.88 billion in 2023 to $10.2 billion by 2028, driven by increased mental health awareness and regulatory changes (2). China's stock rally could extend another 15% to 20%, according to Goldman Sachs, due to recent stimulus measures and low valuations (3).
• Persistent Inflation and Monetary Policy Challenges
September CPI showed an overall increase of 2.4% year-over-year, with Core CPI up 3.3%, both slightly above expectations (4). The Federal Reserve is expected to continue its rate-cutting cycle, with the federal funds rate projected to return to its long-term equilibrium of 2.9% by Q3 2026 (1). Services prices remain sticky, up 4.7%, partly due to higher wages and inaccurate employment data (4).
• Fiscal Concerns and Rising National Debt
The IMF warns that U.S. public debt is not stabilized, projecting gross government debt to reach 131.7% of GDP by 2029 (1). The U.S. budget deficit is expected to hit 7.6% of GDP in 2024, up from the previous estimate of 6.5% (5). Delaying fiscal adjustments could make the required corrections larger and more costly in the
future (1).
• Market Volatility and Investment Trends
LPL Financial warns of six major risks that could spook markets, including upper-income consumer strain, high stock valuations, and rising interest rates (6). Gold prices have surged, trading 28% higher in 2024 and increasing 44.17% in the last 2 months (7). Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are experiencing volatility, with traders noting similarities to pre-election patterns in previous years (8).
• Geopolitical Tensions and Global Trade Concerns
Ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and tensions with China over Taiwan pose risks to global economic stability and supply chains (6). Singapore's Temasek warns that a potential Trump re-election could lead to a global growth slowdown and increased uncertainty due to tariffs (9). Oil prices dropped sharply as Israel's airstrikes bypassed critical oil and nuclear sites, alleviating immediate supply concerns (10).
• Sector-Specific Developments and Earnings Outlook
The tech sector shows resilience, with Tesla's upbeat sales forecast rekindling optimism in tech stocks (10). Q3 earnings season reveals mixed results, with financials outperforming while healthcare disappointed (10). Sprouts Farmers Market projects Q4 2024 adjusted EPS of $0.67-$0.71, above the $0.58
estimate (11).
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Portfolio News and Trends
- Benzinga Breaking News | Nvidia Shares Are Moving Higher: What's Happening?
- Benzinga Breaking News | P/E Ratio Insights for Visa
- Benzinga Breaking News | Cannabis Chart Of The Week: How Serious Is The 2026 Debt Maturity
"Tsunami"? - Benzinga Breaking News | Friday's Top 5 Trending Stocks: What's The Scoop On Tesla, SoFi,
Joby? - Benzinga Breaking News | Huntington Ingalls Indus Q3 2024 GAAP EPS $2.56 Misses $3.83
Estimate, Sales $2.749B Miss $2.867B Estimate
Macro Update - FOMC meetings | Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement
- Beige Book | Beige Book
Economic and Market Outlook - Benzinga Breaking News | IMF Brightens US Economic Growth Projections, Warns National Debt
'Not Stabilized' (CORRECTED) - Benzinga Breaking News | Global Psychedelic Drugs Market Expected To Reach $10.2B By 2028
Amid Growing Mental Health Crises - Benzinga Breaking News | '4 reasons why China's blistering stock rally has another 20% to run,
Goldman says' - Markets Business Insider - Benzinga Breaking News | September CPI Is 2.4%
- Benzinga Breaking News | Deficit Strain In Washington Will Get Worse, IMF Warns: National Debt
Projections Revised Higher, Stabilization Unlikely By 2029 - Benzinga Breaking News | 6 Economic Frights That Could Haunt Markets This Halloween: 'A
Tipping Point For Risk Appetite,' Analysts Warn - Benzinga Breaking News | Investors Look To Gold As Middle East Tensions Rise: How Israel-Iran
Conflict Could Impact Prices - Benzinga Breaking News | Bitcoin, Ethereum, Dogecoin Struggle As Trader Points Out Past Pre-
Election Derisking Patterns: 'Be Careful What You Sell' - Benzinga Breaking News | Trump Tariffs 'Will Be Negative Not Just For Emerging Markets But
Across The World,' Says Singapore's Temasek: 'Going To Create Uncertainty' - Benzinga Breaking News | Oil Prices Drop Over 6% As Supply Fears Ease; Asia And Europe
market Up - Global Markets Today While US Slept - Benzinga Breaking News | Sprouts Farmers Market Sees Q4 2024 Adj. EPS $0.67-$0.71 Vs $0.58 Estimate